Every May, supply chain leaders flip the switch from spring to peak shipping season — forecasting demand, aligning partners and locking in logistics plans for the holiday surge. But this year, the usual signals are scrambled.
Tariffs have created a huge challenge, leading to retailers pausing orders and consumers tightening their spending. The New York Times reports on a toy industry in limbo, with bankruptcy fears mounting and margins under siege. Gartner echoes the pressure: nearly half of supply chain leaders are passing on costs or retooling operations entirely.
Welcome to the new normal for peak shipping season — one where volatility and uncertainty have become baselines rather than variables. The problem is that traditional peak-season playbooks weren’t built for this. What retailers need now is agility: Platforms that can help create flexibility, respond to dynamic circumstances and reroute in real-time as disruptions emerge.
Will There Even Be a Peak Season?
The very concept of “peak season” is starting to unravel.
Retailers who once banked on a predictable November-December surge are now hedging their bets. Many are pausing or delaying orders entirely, concerned about overextending in a market where consumer confidence is shaky and pricing pressure is constant. Shoppers are feeling the pinch, which has led them to hold out for discounts, opt for fewer items and shift spending to essentials only.
In response, some brands are front-loading inventory in hopes of beating potential tariff hikes. But that strategy comes with its own risks: inflated carrying costs, warehouse congestion and the looming threat of excess stock that may not move when (or if) demand materializes.
The New York Times article highlights these issues in the toy industry, but it’s not just one sector. This is a broader pattern playing out across the retail landscape.
Rather than a linear peak shipping season, we’re seeing a series of unpredictable micro-surges followed by demand lulls. Now that retailers can’t rely on the calendar as a guide to seasonal surges, they need agile fulfillment networks that can respond to a holiday season defined by its instability.
New Inventory Strategies & the Risk of Overcorrection
For retailers, trying to stay ahead of tariffs has become a balancing act. According to Gartner, 45% of supply chain leaders plan to pass increased costs on to consumers, while 43% are actively retooling their supply operations in response to trade volatility. But in the rush to prepare, many risk swinging too far in one direction.
Front-loading inventory to avoid tariff spikes may seem like a safe play, but it introduces a new layer of risk. Holding more stock for longer drives up carrying costs. Warehouses fill faster. Cash flow tightens. And if demand doesn’t materialize as forecasted, retailers are left with overstock and markdowns that erode margins.
This is where over-preparedness becomes a liability.
To navigate this environment, retailers need to create flexibility. That means rethinking how inventory is allocated, how orders are routed and how fulfillment decisions are made in real time. Order Management Systems (OMS) with dynamic routing capabilities can give retailers the edge, enabling smarter decisions across regions, carriers and channels.
In an unpredictable climate, staying nimble is the key to success.
Why Carrier Diversification is Non-Negotiable
Uncertainty doesn’t end at the warehouse. Tariffs, inventory swings and erratic consumer demand all trickle down to the last mile.
When demand ebbs and flows, even through a traditional peak season, retailers must find a way to ensure both consistent service and capacity. If and when orders do drop, the worst case scenario is getting caught with no carrier availability — or being locked into a single carrier that can’t scale or flex when volume spikes.
That’s why carrier diversification is non-negotiable in 2025 and beyond.
A single mode or limited carrier strategy may have worked when volume curves were predictable. But now, it creates exposure to service disruptions, rate hikes and the reality that no one carrier can be everywhere, all the time.
A multi-carrier strategy, powered by real-time orchestration, gives retailers the control and responsiveness they need to maintain delivery performance — even when the rest of the supply chain is in flux. When speed, cost and customer experience hang in the balance, that flexibility becomes a retailer’s competitive advantage.
Planning Amid Volatility — A New Playbook
The old peak season playbook: lock in volume and scale early.
The new peak season playbook: build optionality by knowing where your inventory is, where delays are forming and how orders are flowing through the network.
Here’s a look at the three keys to running this new playbook:
1. Real-Time Visibility
The new playbook is powered in part by the last mile gold standard: real-time visibility. With real-time visibility in place, retailers can make fast, confident decisions in response to changing circumstances. Without this level of visibility, even the best-laid plans fall apart the moment conditions shift.
2. Regionalized Fulfillment
Regionalized fulfillment is also gaining traction. By positioning inventory closer to end customers, retailers can shorten delivery times, reduce reliance on congested national lanes and better withstand regional disruptions. Paired with systems that can flex capacity up or down depending on demand, this approach keeps retailers nimble without overcommitting resources.
3. Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is another critical shift. Rather than assuming stability, smart shippers are actively modeling “what-if” outcomes: What if tariffs are extended? What if they’re rolled back suddenly? How do supplier relationships, cost structures and fulfillment models respond in each case?
Gartner underscores this shift, noting a growing focus on rethinking supplier ecosystems, compliance strategies and sourcing flexibility. Rather than simply choosing the cheapest path, retailers must now build a supply chain that can bend without breaking.
You don’t have to predict the future perfectly. You just need to be prepared to pivot in response to sudden changes.
Plan Smarter, Not Just Earlier
The rules of peak season have changed. Planning earlier is no longer enough in an age when disruption can strike from so many directions and when yesterday’s forecasts are outdated by tomorrow. The retailers who will come out ahead this holiday season are those who plan with agility rather than just urgency.
- They’ll build resilience into their operations, not just volume.
- They’ll diversify their delivery networks, not depend on a single carrier or strategy.
- And they’ll invest in tech-forward fulfillment infrastructure that can pivot in real time — not patchwork solutions that buckle under pressure.
This is where OneRail delivers a competitive advantage. Our real-time logistics orchestration platform connects shippers to a nationwide network of final mile carriers, powered by dynamic order routing, automated dispatch and full visibility from pickup to doorstep. Whether you’re navigating micro-surges, port delays or shifting tariff strategies, OneRail gives you the flexibility to adapt — and the confidence to deliver.
Ready to make volatility your advantage this peak season? Schedule a demo and see how OneRail helps you plan smarter and win bigger.
